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The Butterfly Effect

Summary:

A Butterfly takes flight when it shouldn't have. The cascading changes to the timeline result in the conquest of Ba Sing Se and the Dragon of the West returning home an unchanged man.

4 years later things are a bit different. A disgraced princess hunts the Avatar, the Mad King of Omashu and his allies in the Northern Water Tribe fight a losing war as best they can, and the Fire Nation is run with a far more efficient sort of evil.

In other words, my take on the ol' Lu Ten doesn't die AU

Chapter 1: The Prelude

Notes:

Back on my old shit. That means I edited the whole thing and am writing more. (Update, three years later and with an entire degree focused on this kinda stuff I'm back. As I embark upon learning Chinese I think I want to return to this fic, focused as it will be on Chinese history)

Chapter Text

There was a garden in northwest corner of the Earth King's palace. Tucked between two much more important subcomplexes, it went largely unnoticed. It was little more than a meandering pathway through a collection of flowers and well manicured trees. The only thing of note was that it served as a seasonal home to a couple of butterflies. And one day, one of them took flight when it should not have. As far as the butterfly was concerned, it lifted off and fluttered about for a couple of minutes and landed again. That’s the end of the story if you care about the butterfly.

But everything affects everything else and even something as small as a butterfly can make an impact, if even for an instant. Each flutter of its wing created a little ripple in the air. Individually they were so weak that even the wisest of the late airbenders wouldn’t have detected them. Nonetheless the ripples fed into a westerly breeze, strengthening it by the slightest bit. In a total affront to destiny, this breeze ran through a battleground, and and a rather important one at that. The walls of Ba Sing Se were under attack. 

The official Fire Nation account of what followed describes an illustrious advance led by Crown Prince Lu Ten, carrying out the final step of his father’s brilliant plan. A generation of students would be familiar with the charge that shattered the Earth Kingdom. The narrative would neatly explain how the Earth Kingdom simply lacked disciplined fighting force. By comparison the more advanced and civilized Fire Nation did. And as their society was simply more evolved than the Earth Kingdom's and this was an inevitable conclusion. Like all history, reality wasn’t so clean cut.

While the Earth Kingdom may have had a massive breach in their outer wall, they were far from defenseless. They also had two more sets of walls to defend. Like all kingdoms, they did not rely on just buildings to protect themselves either. While traditionally seen as a liability, the hundreds of thousands of peasants and commoners were not placed between the palace and the outside world by accident. As such, the policy of no war entering Ba Sing Se ended and the manpower resources of the city were began to be extracted in earnest. 

Due to their deep pool of reserves, the Earth Kingdom was able to funnel a constant stream of men into the breach. Hours of savage hand to hand combat had taken, lost, and retaken the same line of barricades a dozen times. Firebenders and Earthbenders alike tore into densely packed blocks of soldiers. The clear lines on the map that the textbooks used, did not account for the thick clouds of smoke and dust, the constant din of battle and the fact that very few people knew what was going on.

Needless to say this was not the war of maneuver and wits the Dragon of the West preferred. He had found himself in a battle of attrition with no end in sight and chances were that he’d lose. The Earth Kingdom had many times more men, fighting for their homes, even if they were recently pulled from the streets. He was fighting a war on his enemy’s terms, which something no self respecting general ought allow themselves to do. But he wasn’t ready to surrender, not when the city gates were within reach. So with one final brush stroke, he passed on an order to a messenger. 

Shortly afterwards, Lu Ten, acting under direct orders of his father, took personal command of all remaining reserve battalions. This should have put an end to the six hundred day siege. Lu Ten along with most of his men would be buried under a hail of rubble, a broken General Iroh would return home, and Ba Sing Se would live up to its name once again.

But because that butterfly took flight, this did not happen. The slightest alternation in the previously mentioned breeze that shifted the clouds of dust and smoke just enough to obscure the line of sight of a single earth bender, Pujie. He was a signal bender, who lifted painted rocks to transfer information to and from the frontline. But because of this slightest difference he was unable to receive a rather important message, the prince's location. Therefore the location of Lu Ten was not broadcasted, and a hail of boulders were not called down on him. This saved Lu Ten’s life. As the third in line to the throne of the Fire Nation, he would have been targeted with extreme prejudice.

The breeze however, did not protect Pujie, who became the victim of a Yuyan archer. Even before Pujie's body grew cold Lu Ten made it to the front lines, where he led a charge to retake one of a dozen lines of barricades. The already exhausted and inexperienced defenders suddenly found themselves facing a wave of fresh veteran forces. Within minutes the barricades were again in Fire Nation hands.

But unlike the previous assaults, the Fire Nation did not stop advancing. They were under the royal banner, led by their cherished general’s son. Slogans drilled into the invading troops since their first day at school drove them on, and soon further assaults were issued from zealous officers not following direct orders, but rather ordering from the spirit of their previous orders. The scattered defenders were unable to mount an organized defense through their own retreating comrades and were forced back from their secondary line of defenses.

As often happens when armies start running, they don't stop. Panic can spread very quickly, even among those who haven't seen the enemy yet. Soon after the second line fell, most, if not all of the Earth’s King’s forces were in a full scale rout. Waves of fleeing troops crashed into their own lines, pushing them apart and shattering cohesion. Despite some pockets of heroic resistance, the situation quickly devolved into a full scale slaughter, the second layer of walls prevented the conscript army from escaping even as it held back the invaders. 

Within an hour the entire city was in the grips of chaos. The sun was soon blotted out by thick pillars of smoke, the smell of burning flesh clung to the air, and for the first time in history, the flimsy lie that there was no war in Ba Sing Se had broken. Many recent refugees panicked. They feared being a victim of another another massacre mere months after the last one. Their panic spread, and soon half the city was trying to flee into the palace. In their first combat in decades, the palace guard found themselves fighting their own countrymen.

Long Feng, the leader of the Dai Li, was not a man to pass up such an opportunity. He knew he was on the losing side of the fight, and that the Earth King was going to lose to his own citizens long before the Fire Nation got to him. This was a bad thing to almost all of his associates, but it was a windfall for his organization. 

The final ring still held, and vast portions of the middle ring still resisted. It was likely that the Fire Nation would be unable to cleanly seize the city and would be inclined to burn it instead. By delivering the prize intact to the Dragon of the West, Long Feng would undoubtedly secure a comfortable future for himself. So he defected, unfurling the fire nation banners he had stored for such an occasion.

The palace fell within an hour, every one in a long list of names were captured or killed, depending on orders. Every strongpoint was systematically dismantled from within. An ever gracious conqueror, Iroh welcomed the betrayal with open arms. With the efficiency the general was known for, he assimilated the “unexpected reinforcements” and crushed all resistance before nightfall.

Meanwhile in the spirit world, the butterfly spirit found itself the victim of a sudden and all encompassing silent treatment, owing to the single butterfly that had just ruined everything. That was what you got for relying on spirit interns to do the hard work for you.

 

***

 

Four years later, a lone Sozin class battleship charted a course due south. This was out of the ordinary. Any sailor with a shred of common sense would tell you that there was no good reason to go this far south. Weren’t any waterbenders to exchange for a bounty, only the odd leopard-seal fur and some fish. Even the southern raiders had given up on this forsaken hellhole, claiming it wasn’t worth the cost of coal to get there.

But for the commander of the battleship, the fact that nobody ever went there was the exact reason she was going there. After all, the Avatar, obvious master of stealth, was clearly not somewhere people went often.

If he were in the Northern Water Tribe or the Omashu holdouts, the world would know. If he were in the Fire Nation or the colonies, he’d already be in a cell. And Princess Azula had already searched the air temples extensively. So that left one possibility, the southern tribe.

To be entirely honest, it struck her as odd that nobody else had tried looking for him at the south pole. But then again, it had been decades since anybody really cared. It was hundred year old news that the Avatar was a coward. He was a non-factor, not considered worth the effort required to capture. In that way, Azula supposed he fit in well with everything else this far south.

But this was no time for supposing, Princess Azula had left her well heated quarters for a reason. A recent turn of events had made it clear that her orders carried little weight. And like any good leader, she would rectify the situation post haste.

“Captain, why have we slowed down?”

The greying officer turned to face Azula with a start, obviously distracted by whatever job he was doing on the deck. The crewmen around him now seemed very interested in their menial work.

“The ice your majesty.” He bowed low and stiffly, “Navigating this far south has become a hazard, and we are responding accordingly.”

Despite being the one to approach him, Azula turned away from the captain. She walked out to the railing and feigned interest in the bland scenery of ice floes and empty ocean. Despite the outward display of casual arrogance, this was a rehersed move. She had angled herself in a way that the captain could not politely move to address her face to face. As father had always said, disregard was worth a thousand words of displeasure.

“I see. Now tell me, what are we doing?”  Azula asked her nails. “I seem to have forgotten.” 

Captain Chaisai, had no real answer. The Princess’s feigned ignorance was obviously some sort of trap, it seemed everything was with her. In all likelihood it would be best for him to answer plainly. The sooner this was done with, the sooner he could get back to getting his crew through the ice.

“We are headed due south to find and capture the Avatar, your majesty”

To Azula this wasn’t the worst answer, at least he had some sense of purpose, even if he lacked conviction.

“Correct.” Azula said, turning to meet the captain’s gaze directly, as her tone sharpened. “I suppose you can also tell me who this avatar is.”

Right as Captain Chaisai began to open his mouth she continued. “Oh yes, I remember now. He’s the only person who can bend all four elements, something he has been practicing for over one hundred years. Do you think we should be careful?”

The captain bowed again, before a reflexive response of, “Of course your majesty.”

Azula raised an eyebrow and remained silent. Captain Chaisai would have to measure his next words very carefully. He was effectively gambling the retirement that he had spent 20 years working towards by dealing with a child who acted like the personal firelord of his vessel. All for trying to keep his ship above water.

“If I may ask, what does this have to do with the Avatar? Is it not wise to deal with him with an undamaged vessel?”

Azula was already tired of his dull questions.

“The ship we stand on is coal powered, and coal burns to ash, captain. The ash will alert everyone, including the avatar of our presence long before we arrive. Unless you’re attempting to give the Avatar a sporting chance that is. We must be as fast as possible, or he will see us coming.”

Chaisai, weighed his options. He could either contradict a royal, the late Ozai’s daughter no less, and most likely spend the next couple months in the brig waiting to drown. Or he could risk drowning from the comfort of the captain’s quarters, with an intact pension if he somehow did not. 

“As you instruct, your majesty.” Captain Chaisai bowed.

Azula nodded slightly and made her way back to her quarters without a further word. A royal commanded, they did not linger.  

 

***

 

As dramatic as the changes to the world may have been, Not everything changed. Even as Azula lorded over her ship in search of the Avatar, a series of events were happening in the exact same way they would have without the butterfly. A pair of siblings argued themselves into being fully stranded and found a boy in an iceberg. The sister began her attempt to free him, while the brother attempted to figure just exactly how such a spy could have frozen himself so convincingly. Neither realized yet realized that this was the avatar.